Why Timestamped Stock Calls Beat Hindsight

The hindsight problem

Market talk online is full of people who "called it." Posts get edited, deleted or quietly forgotten, and only the winners get reposted. A track record you can't check isn't really a track record.

What makes a stock call verifiable

On Early Insight, a call is a clear, checkable claim about a stock, crypto asset or market event, with a deadline. Once published, the claim, your reasoning, your conviction and the time it was posted are locked. You can't edit them later. When the deadline arrives, the call is checked against the real outcome.

Conviction: how sure were you?

Each call carries a conviction from 1 to 10. A conviction of 7 means you think it's about 70% likely. Being confident and right counts for little if the outcome was already obvious, and being confident and wrong should cost something.

Fair Score

Every call is scored with one formula, locked in when you publish. If you're right, you earn 20 × (1 − p), where p is your conviction as a probability. If you're wrong, you lose 20 × p. Bold calls that turn out right earn the most. Overconfident calls that miss cost the most. There are no bonus points, so the leaderboard only shows how well people judged the odds.

No betting, ever

Early Insight is about reputation, not money. There are no wagers, prizes or payouts. Your record is the reward.

Start your record

Check live prices, news and the stock screener on Markets, then publish your first call before the outcome is obvious.